The Malawi Population projections have been prepared after examining all the available demographic data since 1977. The projections are prepared using the Spectrum Beta Version that takes into account the impact of HIV/AIDS in a population. The projections were prepared during a Demographic Analysis Workshop in Mangochi funded by UNFPA and USAID. The US Bureau of the Census provided the technical expertise.
Local expertise was drawn from:
The projections are presented for the National level only. Work on finalizing the district and regional projection is in progress. These projections are based on the following assumptions:
The declining trend in fertility that has been observed between 1977 and 2000 will continue and expected to reach TFR of 5.1 in 2025
In projecting mortality, the impact of HIV/AIDS on expectation of life in Malawi is incorporated by modeling National AIDS Commission Sentinel Sites data since the onset of the first AIDS case in Malawi and projecting the impact to 2025.
The projection assumes net intercensal migration since 1977 is zero. Except for the period 1985 and 1994 when Malawi experienced an influx and eventual return of Mozambican refugees. The data recorded by UNHCR Malawi was used.
Below is a list of projections on: